07/20/2026
We aren’t getting excited yet. Wind speed may be an issue but it’s a wait and see for this weekend.
I’ve had some interesting interactions today about my choice to NOT show the viral “cone of uncertainty” maps from the NHC.
For the record, I’m deeply appreciative for the amazing work that the NHC does! I just choose to share their wind and flood probability maps, instead of their cone maps.
The wind and flood probability maps help us zero in on the actual areas at higher risk for wind and flood impacts, which is what we all care about.
Not only does the cone map not show impacts, it engulfs broad areas that have very little risk. Some people say it’s better to make broader risk areas… better be safe than sorry, right?
I disagree for two reasons.
#1) When we “oversell” storm impacts and ring false alarms, people lose confidence in the accuracy of weather forecasting. It’s one reason why we hear, “meteorologists are always wrong.”
Much of the time, the science was there for a good forecast, it was just miscommunicated.
#2) When storm impacts are hyped or overplayed, it causes visitors and tourists to unnecessarily cancel vacation plans and hurts the coastal economy. This, in turn, hurts our local residents.
I cannot count how many times thousands of people have canceled their vacation plans to the coast for a storm that’s never coming. The visitor loses, the local business owner loses… everyone loses when forecasts are miscommunicated.
If there’s a legit storm threat on the horizon, I’ll be the first to post it. But much of the time people are reacting to storms that are never coming.
The balance is found in a factual approach that stresses preparation, not fear or panic. The weather is uncertain, so we just have to check back for updates and keep an eye on things.
Right now it looks like tropical storm impacts are UNLIKELY for Texas and SW Louisiana this week and weekend. Let’s keep an eye on the forecast for updates, but I wouldn’t cancel your vacation plans.
- HH
Pic: Sunrise from Galveston Beach on Mon Jul 20.