https://www.facebook.com/237648366403850/

Master Select 5, Dhaka, Dhaka (2026)

19/01/2024

The central banks of the United States and Japan are sharply divided, inflation data is "worse", and USD/JPY is above the 150 mark

In the Asian session on Friday (January 19), USD/JPY fluctuated higher and is currently up 0.13% and trading around 148.30, while Japanese inflation slowed to 2.6%, leading to increased uncertainty about the Bank of Japan's shift from ultra-loose to tightening. Currency investors are gradually tilting towards the US dollar as bets on an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March fall, and the Fed spokesperson's speech is expected to be a key catalyst in the future.

On Friday, Japan reported that the national consumer price index (CPI) fell to 2.6% in December from 2.8%, in line with consensus market expectations. Core inflation fell to 2.3% from 2.5%. Economists forecast core inflation at 2.3%. Recent inflation, wage growth and household consumption data have reduced bets on the BoJ's pivot, and weak inflation data could further affect the BoJ's plans to exit negative interest rates.

However, March's "spring fight" wage growth talks could spur the BOJ to pivot to tightening in the second quarter. Therefore, investors must pay attention to the reaction of the BOJ board members to the inflation data, and comments on the timing of the shift from negative interest rates also need to be considered.

Later on Friday, the US consumer confidence index will attract investors' interest. The upward trend in consumer confidence may signal a recovery in consumer spending. An improvement in consumer spending trends could spur demand-driven inflation. Rising inflationary pressures could force the Federal Reserve to postpone interest rate cuts to curb consumer spending and curb demand-driven inflation.

The long-term higher interest rate path affects borrowing costs and reduces disposable income, and a downward trend in disposable income could impact consumer spending.

Economists forecast that the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will rise to 70.0 from 69.7 in January, but investors must consider sub-factors, including inflation expectations, and other statistics include existing home sales data for December.

However, these numbers are likely to be second only to the Michigan report.

In addition to the numbers, comments from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members also need to be considered. FOMC members Michael Barr and Mary Daly are scheduled to speak on Friday.

In the short-term outlook, the near-term trend for USD/JPY depends on forward guidance from the Bank of Japan, Fed rhetoric and US consumer confidence. A pick-up in consumer confidence and easing bets on a March rate cut by the Federal Reserve could tip the policy divergence in favor of the dollar.

USD/JPY technical analysis

FXEmpire analyst Bob Mason said that on the daily chart, USD/JPY is holding above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, confirming a bullish price signal.

A break above the 148.405 resistance level for USD/JPY will leave the bulls running at the 150.201 resistance level.

However, a break below the 147.500 mark will support a move towards the 146.649 support, and a break below the 146.649 support will allow the 50-day MA to come into play.

The 14-day RSI is at 65.57, suggesting that USD/JPY will break above the 148.405 resistance before entering overbought territory.

On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY is trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, reaffirming a bullish price signal.

USD/JPY broke above the 148.405 resistance and will support its move towards the 150.201 resistance.

However, a break below the 147.500 mark will allow the bears to rush towards the 146.649 support.

The 14-period 4-hour RSI is at 70.24, suggesting that USD/JPY is in overbought territory and selling pressure at the 148.405 resistance level is likely to intensify.

17/01/2024

Six major currency pairs, the US dollar index and gold resistance/support levels during the Asian session on January 17

This article provides support and resistance levels for the U.S. dollar index, euro, pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and gold.

15/01/2024

Six major currency pairs, US dollar index and gold resistance/support levels on January 15

This article provides support and resistance levels for the U.S. dollar index, euro, pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and gold.

15/01/2024

There is a "death cross" on the daily chart of the US dollar. Let's see what analysts say.

A closely watched indicator of the U.S. dollar's performance against other major currencies showed a "death cross" on the daily chart on Friday (Jan. 12) - an ominous technical development that is often seen as a trend. Confirmation of negative changes.

The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Dollar Index DXY, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was trading around 102.16 in early U.S. trading on Friday, down 0.1% on the day, but has risen by about 0.8% since the beginning of the new year. The index fell sharply in December.

This price action brought the index's 50-day moving average close to or below its 200-day moving average near 103.40, triggering a death cross (see chart below).

While death crosses sound bearish, currency analysts question whether they provide much of a signal, preferring instead to confirm a downward trend that has already begun. The U.S. dollar index hit the so-called golden cross at the end of September last year, when the 50-day moving average rose above the 200-day moving average, which is considered a positive indicator.

Data going back to 1985 shows that death crosses do tend to see the index decline in the subsequent 1-month, 3-month and 6-month periods. The U.S. dollar index fell 1.2% over the next month, 1% over the next three months and 0.4% over the six months, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The probability of decline in 1 month and 3 months is 60%, and the probability of decline in 6 months is 52%.

Brad Bechtel, global head of foreign exchange at Jefferies, said in a note: "In my opinion, the death cross is generally a relatively meaningless indicator because I don't think its predictive power has any value, but you You may hear about it in the media."

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said in a note that the death cross is a lagging indicator and "does not necessarily mean that the dollar will not rebound." "

On the contrary . "I think the Fed's dovish expectations have been much ahead of schedule since late last year and the dollar has some room for a positive correction," she said.

The dollar fell sharply in December as investors expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by about 25 basis points in 2024.

10/01/2024

AUD/USD declines into near-term lows around 0.6680 despite Aussie Retail Sales beat

The Aussie lost ground on Tuesday, paring away intraday gains.
Broader markets are favoring the US Dollar heading into the midweek.
This week hinges on US CPI inflation figures due on Thursday.
The AUD/USD slid back into recent lows on Tuesday, paring back Wednesday’s limited bounce as the Australian Dollar (AUD) shrugged off an upside beat in Australian Retail Sales. The US Dollar (USD) saw broad-market uptake on the day as investors adjusted their risk profile heading into the midweek.

Australia’s Retail Sales and Building Permits both beat expectations
Australia’s Retail Sales in November climbed 2% MoM, well above the 1.2% forecast and rebounded from October’s -0.4% decline, which saw a downside revision from -0.2%. Australian Building Permits also beat forecasts, printing at 1.6% in November, well back from October’s 7.2% (revised down slightly from 7.5%) but still above the market’s -2.0% forecast.

Australian Building Permits likewise beat the street, showing 2% growth in November versus the forecast 1.2%. October’s Building Permits were revised slightly lower from 7.5% to 7.2%.

US Data was thin on Tuesday, and markets will be broadly turning focus towards Thursday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures as investors look to draw a bead on future Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. Last Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls disappointed market participants hoping for a faster, deeper pace of rate cuts in 2024, as healthier jobs data makes it harder for the Fed to get pushed into a rate cut cycle.

AUD/USD Technical Outlook
The AUD/USD has settled back into familiar near-term lows near 0.6680 as intraday action gets capped underneath the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.6760. The Aussie is down 2.75% against the US Dollar from late December’s peak of 0.6871.

The AUD/USD’s near-term decline has the pair getting dragged back towards the 200-day SMA on daily candlesticks, approaching the 0.6600 handle as price action descends into a technical support zone following a bullish crossover of the 50-day and 200-day SMAs.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

10/01/2024

EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Bears pause, two days losses meet strong support at 0.8600
EUR/GBP regains some ground and stands at 0.8605 despite previous losses.
Daily chart outlook still suggest a bearish outlook..
In the longer term, the pair remains under major SMAs, painting a bearish picture while the four-hour-chart bears seem to ease off.
On Tuesday's session, the EUR/GBP was observed at 0.8605, experiencing slight gains of 0.15%. Following two days of declines and encountering robust support at the 0.8600 level, bears took a break. Despite this, the daily chart still presents a neutral to bearish outlook, and this bearish tilt remains apparent in the four-hour chart as well.

The indicators on the daily chart reflect a prevailing selling momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) displays a positive incline yet remains within the negative territory, implying that while the selling pressure is somewhat easing, there is no pronounced shift in favor of buyers just yet. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) with its rising red bars further highlights the current bear dominance. Moreover, the pair's position beneath the key levels of 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) reinforces the widespread bearish control.

Zooming into the four-hour chart, the bearish sentiment is echoed. The tilt remains downhill as the negative slope of the four-hour RSI proclaims that sellers dominate the short-term momentum as well. However, the rising green bars in the four-hour MACD indicates a growing bullish undercurrent and a possible bearish exhaustion. It may imply that bears are taking a breather, and a temporary reversal might be on the cards if buyers manage to build an effective momentum. However, the overall outlook remains dominated by the sellers in the short run.

EUR/GBP daily chart

05/01/2024

Another dollar bull "capitulates"! Morgan Stanley abandons bullish bets on the dollar

Financial News Agency, January 5 (Editor Bian Chun) As one of the few U.S. dollar bulls in the market, Morgan Stanley lowered its outlook for the U.S. dollar on Thursday, citing falling U.S. Treasury yields after the Federal Reserve turned dovish.

The bank adjusted its outlook for the U.S. dollar to neutral from bullish , but noted that seasonal factors and short positions could still push the dollar higher.

Morgan Stanley has been betting on a stronger dollar since at least mid-November, with the bank forecasting that the U.S. Dollar Spot Index (DXY) would rise about 8% from current levels in the second quarter.

In December last year, hedge funds and major banks, including Goldman Sachs, began to turn bearish on the U.S. dollar after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that he would turn to interest rate cuts this year.

The U.S. dollar index subsequently fell to a five-month low, but rebounded in the first four days of January this year. The index fell 0.2% on Thursday.

After the Federal Reserve signaled a policy shift at its last meeting, market expectations for an interest rate cut have increased significantly. But in recent days, markets have scaled back bets on the Fed to cut interest rates.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve policy meeting released on Wednesday were viewed by market participants as mildly hawkish. Better-than-expected U.S. labor market data (ADP data) released on Thursday dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates multiple times this year. On Friday, the United States will release the latest non-farm payrolls report, which may provide more clues about the Fed's policy outlook.

The London Stock Exchange Interest Rate Probability Application shows that after the release of ADP data on Thursday, U.S. interest rate futures lowered their expectations for the number of interest rate cuts in 2024 to four, with each rate cut of 25 basis points, from about six on Wednesday night.

The dollar is long and one less

"Our confidence in the strength of the U.S. dollar has weakened significantly," Morgan Stanley strategists including David Adams wrote in a report released on January 4.
Morgan Stanley lowered its outlook for the U.S. dollar, which means there is one less dollar bull in the market.
In December, a handful of institutions, including Fidelity International, JPMorgan Chase and HSBC, went against the consensus view and warned that the U.S. dollar would unexpectedly strengthen in 2024 as the U.S. economy performed well.

These dollar bulls expect the rest of the world's economies to have a harder time dealing with high interest rates and a looming recession than the United States. While the Fed has signaled it plans to cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2024, it expects other major economies from Europe to emerging markets to take similar or even faster cuts, causing spreads to widen.

Among analysts surveyed by foreign media, most people believe that the dollar will weaken.

Morgan Stanley also withdrew its short EUR/USD trading recommendation and instead advised investors to short EUR/JPY. The bank forecasts that the yen will appreciate as U.S. interest rates fall, while the euro will weaken as the euro zone economy continues to weaken.

05/01/2024

Analyst: Gold prices may fall further in the short term, but the long-term target is still around 2176

FX Empire technical analyst and global market strategist Bruce Powers said gold prices are giving up year-end gains and testing support at the 20-day moving average, raising questions about the depth of the pullback.

Bowers wrote after the close of futures trading on Wednesday (January 3): "Gold retraced 50% of its previous gains and found support for the day at $2,031. It also successfully tested the 20-day moving average of $2,034 today. Support. This is the second test of support at the 20-day line, the first being on December 15."

Powers said it remains to be seen whether the support level can be sustained and whether prices can climb further. "There are no signs of this yet, so a deeper retracement is expected in the short term, but it may not be significant,"

he said. He went on to add: "There may be support around the lower uptrend line, and the price will move based on where it is. The timing of this line varies as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 2017. Slightly lower is the 50-day EMA at $2,008. These levels are likely to see increased demand. If gold remains strong for the foreseeable future To hit new highs in the future, ideally we would like to see a price structure that maintains higher swing highs and lows in an uptrend channel."

Powers pointed out that gold prices are currently at a swing low of $1,810 from early October. The third phase of the uptrend begins. “The first two phases have symmetry in time and price, which may provide clues to the upside target of the third phase.”

He said: “The first rise after the October low saw gold prices rise by 199 points . or 11%, over 15 days, while the second uptick was 203 points, or 10.5%, also over 15 days. This does not mean that the third phase up in a trend will match the previous move, but it probably will, or There is at least some mathematical relationship.”

The third phase of the uptrend, which began with the $1,973 swing low set on December 13, has successfully tested support at the 50-day moving average. “Given that the current uptrend is on its 13th day, a timing match looks unlikely, however, a similar move in price could be represented by an ascending ABCD pattern, where the CD leg equals the AB leg.” “The pattern’s target is

located at $2,176," Powers concluded. "If reached, it will demonstrate the mathematical relationship between all three recent increases."

On Thursday, spot gold fell to near 2036, hitting the 21-day moving average support, closing at $2043.25 per ounce, of course an increase of about 0.1%. The cumulative weekly decline was 0.88%.

03/01/2024

Preview of the Fed meeting minutes: Hawks will pour cold water on the market, and the “interest rate cut carnival” may usher in an intermission

Zhitong Finance APP noted that the minutes of the upcoming meeting of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may pour cold water on the market.

It's still cold outside, and that could be the message the Fed is about to send. However, any chill from the world's most powerful central bank is likely to be short-lived.

The market was dazzled by dovish arguments

Three interest rate cuts in 2024 – this is the message conveyed by the Fed’s “dot plot” on December 13. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues kept interest rates steady and signaled borrowing costs would fall more than previously expected. The Fed's decision to lower rather than raise interest rate expectations marks a shift in policy and a victory over inflation.

The market likes this idea - but may have gone too far - predicting four or five rate cuts in 2024, with the first coming in March. Bond yields plummeted, stocks soared, and the dollar was in the red. Investors tend to shoot first and think later, and can go too far.

According to bond market data, interest rates will be cut in March.

Fed officials don’t want long-term borrowing costs to fall so strongly or so quickly — which could encourage lending rather than saving, potentially undoing gains in curbing inflation. This is where meeting minutes come in handy.

Fed uses meeting minutes to convey message

The agreements will capture remarks from the two-day meeting, where Fed officials released their forecasts. At the time, policymakers were influenced by consumer price index (CPI) data (released on the first day of their deliberations) and producer price index (PPI). But not all members of the Fed's board are entirely on the same page.

Because the minutes were being revised until the last minute, the minutes are likely to underline the message officials wanted to convey - don't rush. The report is expected to emphasize the desire of hawkish members to remain cautious before cutting rates and pledge not to cut rates until they are sure a rate cut is necessary.

Such a hawkish bright spot would boost the dollar and dismay stock investors. It also cools gold.

However, analysts believe this impact will not last long. First, the trend is strong - investors are quite optimistic about the prospect of a soft landing, where inflation disappears completely without a recession.

Second, the market is skeptical of the Fed's forecasts. The agency was slow to admit that inflation was not temporary and that it had done enough, or too much.

The third point - and this is related to the first - is that the Fed emphasizes its reliance on data. Unless the latest data shows an inflationary bias, there is no reason to fear hawkish rhetoric.

Summarize

The Federal Reserve is expected to release relatively hawkish minutes, triggering a "risk-off" market trend. However, this trend won't last long.

03/01/2024

U.S. stocks close: Technology stocks ushered in the "opening hammer", and the Dow rose at the last moment to reach new highs

Financial News Agency, January 3 (Editor Shi Zhengcheng) On the first U.S. stock trading day in 2024, last year’s dazzling technology leaders collectively stalled, and the Nasdaq recorded its largest single-day decline since October last year . It's not all bad news today. With the strong medical concept and a surge in late trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average turned red 3 minutes before closing, continuing to set a new closing high .

As of the close, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.57% to 4742.83 points; the Nasdaq Index fell 1.63% to 14765.94 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 0.07% to 37715.04 points.

(Dow Minute Minute Chart, Source: TradingView) It is not difficult to find from today’s market themes that the external market in 2024 will be a year closely surrounded by macroeconomic, geopolitical and political events. Approvals from various governments will also resonate with the capital market.

The weakness of technology stocks on Tuesday, especially the collective weakness of chip stocks, is related to the Dutch government's partial revocation of ASML's export license for China's NXT:2050i and NXT:2100i lithography machines. A similar emotional decline also occurred last year. Pass. In the U.S. stock market on Tuesday, Arm fell by more than 8%, the largest single-day decline since its IPO. Industry chain concept stocks such as AMD, ASML, Intel, and Applied Materials fell by nearly 5%.

Another market thread is also related to geopolitics. As the Red Sea crisis intensified last weekend, Maersk once again announced the suspension of the Red Sea route on Tuesday . As France's CMA CGM announced a significant increase in freight rates on the Asia-Mediterranean route, Maersk's US stock closed up 7% on Tuesday.

The final hot spot is also related to the expectation of government (FDA) approval. As the only stock in the S&P 500 Index that rose more than 10% on Tuesday, Moderna's "dilemma reversal" logic has attracted attention . Analysts pointed out that in addition to the new crown vaccine, Moderna's RSV vaccine is expected to be launched within the year, and influenza and customized cancer vaccines will also be launched within one to two years.

Under the leadership of Moderna, pharmaceutical and health care concept stocks such as Pfizer, Merck, Amgen, and UnitedHealth have collectively strengthened, which is also the main driving force for the Dow to reach new highs.

Popular stock performance

The seven technology giants known as the "Magnificent 7" collectively fell, with Apple falling 3.58%, Microsoft falling 1.37%, Amazon falling 1.32%, META falling 2.17%, Google-A falling 1.09%, Tesla falling 0.02%, and NVIDIA fell 2.73%.

Chinese concept stocks also performed poorly, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index falling 3.5%. Alibaba fell 3.57%, Baidu fell 3.15%, Pinduoduo fell 0.46%, JD.com fell 5.85%, NetEase fell 0.74%, Weilai fell 7.17%, Li Auto fell 7.59%, and Xpeng Motors fell 3.77%.

Other news

[Although Tesla’s Q4 sales exceeded expectations, the market is more concerned about “being surpassed by BYD”]

As usual, Tesla announced its vehicle production and delivery data for the fourth quarter of last year on January 2. Tesla delivered 484,500 vehicles in Q4, exceeding market expectations, and the total delivery volume for the year reached 1.8086 million. In terms of production data, Tesla produced 495,000 vehicles in Q4, and the total annual output was 1.846 million vehicles.

Data released by BYD on Monday showed that its pure electric vehicle sales in the fourth quarter of 2023 were 526,400 vehicles. Although the annual pure electric vehicle sales of 1.5748 million units are still slightly lower, according to this trend, the global pure electric vehicle sales ranking will be reversed in 2024.

[Apple gapped and fell on the first day of the new year]

On the first trading day of the new year, Apple, the "stock king" of the US stock market, jumped out of a rather obvious gap. Although the decline itself was only 3.6%, this start also gave investors who were bullish on the "Big Seven" a blow. On the news, Barclays became the latest investment bank to downgrade Apple stock. Analysts from the bank pointed out that the performance of the new iPhone 15 was mediocre, with sales and configurations falling short of expectations, and the same is expected for the iPhone 16, without any more attractive features or upgrades.

The analysis pointed out that although most Wall Street analysts are still bullish on Apple, sporadic and slowly increasing bearish voices have attracted more attention. Although there are rumors that Apple may officially put Vision Pro on the shelves at the end of January or early February, the high pricing of this product itself is destined to be unable to boost the performance of the leading US stock market in the short term.

[AI concept stock Palantir announced that it will hold the first board meeting of the New Year in Israel]

Palantir, a developer of U.S. stock intelligence analysis software and an AI concept stock that investment banks are quite optimistic about, announced on Tuesday that the company will hold its first New Year's board meeting in Tel Aviv next week, emphasizing that the company's work in the region has never been more important. This news did not stop Palantir from falling, with the company closing down 3.44% on Tuesday.

[Waiting for SEC approval of Bitcoin concept stocks, huge shock in the market]

Due to the news two days ago that "the U.S. SEC may issue the first batch of Bitcoin spot ETF approval documents on Tuesday or Wednesday," Bitcoin itself continued to rise to around $45,000 on Tuesday, hitting a new high in the past two years. However, the trends of Bitcoin concept stocks are quite different. MicroStrategy, which holds a large number of Bitcoins, closed up more than 8% on Tuesday. Coinbase, which is planning to provide spot Bitcoin custody services, fell 9.8%, while small-market concept stocks such as Marathon Digital fell by 9.8%. After opening with an increase of more than 10%, it ended up falling by more than 2%.

29/12/2023

Crude oil trading reminder: Red Sea concerns eased, oil prices continued to fall by more than 3%, hitting a new low in more than a week

Concerns about supply disruptions due to escalating tensions in the Middle East eased on Thursday (December 28) as more shipping companies expressed their willingness to transit the Red Sea route, and the market focused on the U.S. Energy Information Administration's daily reports on crude oil and refined product inventories. Crude oil futures were lower on the weekly report.

The settlement price of WTI crude oil futures February 2024 contract closed at US$71.77/barrel, a decrease of 3.16% or US$2.34/barrel. It once hit a new weekly low of US$71.70/barrel during the session.

(U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures chart)

The settlement price of the February 2024 Brent crude oil futures contract was reported at US$78.39/barrel, a decrease of 1.58% or US$1.26/barrel.

[Market News Analysis]

From now on, almost all container ships sailing between Asia and Europe will route through the Suez Canal, with only a handful diverted around Africa, a breakdown of the group's timetable by Denmark's Maersk showed on Thursday. container ship. Major shipping lines including container giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd stopped using the Red Sea route and the Suez Canal earlier this month after Yemen's Houthi rebel group began targeting ships, disrupting global operations trading.

France's CMA CGM also said it would increase the number of ships transiting the Suez Canal, which it announced earlier this week.

"The perception is that the Red Sea routes are reopening and will bring supply to the market within a few weeks," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

Major shipping lines were hit after Yemen's Houthi rebels began attacking ships earlier this month. Stop using the Red Sea route and the Suez Canal. Meanwhile, a U.S.-led coalition aimed at easing tensions in the Red Sea has yet to produce the coordinated action that had been hoped for.

Redmond Wong, market strategist at Saxo Bank, said that although the attack on the Red Sea ship may make the market nervous, signs of increasing U.S. crude oil inventories may put downward pressure on crude oil prices.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude oil inventories fell much more than expected last week, limiting price declines for the time being. The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. EIA crude oil inventories fell by 7.114 million barrels in the week of December 22, the largest weekly decline since August. Analysts expected a decrease of 2.88025 million barrels, while the previous value increased by 2.909 million barrels. A rise in U.S. crude oil inventories at Cushing has partially offset a decline in national inventories, leaving a mixed picture for demand. But Cushing crude inventories climbed to their highest level since August. Crude oil futures trading volumes continued to be sluggish over the holiday period, with trading volumes in the past eight trading days below the 50-day average.

Crude has gained nearly 8% since December lows as Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea force tankers and other vessels to divert to longer voyages, increasing costs. Nearly half of the container fleet that regularly transits the Red Sea currently avoids this route.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said further price declines followed, likely because much of the crude traders were focusing on came from the U.S. Gulf Coast region, where refineries are busy Clean out inventory to avoid hefty storage taxes at the end of the year. Data showed that U.S. Gulf Coast crude oil inventories fell by 11.03 million barrels, the largest drop since August.

The four-week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 20.724 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.52% from the same period last year.

The increase in EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories in the United States in the week to December 22 was the largest since the week of September 1, 2023. The EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory in the United States for the week to December 22 was the highest since the week of June 2, 2023. The EIA crude oil inventory decline in the United States in the week to December 22 was the largest since the week of August 25, 2023. U.S. Midwest gasoline inventories rose last week to their highest level since April 2022. Total U.S. petroleum product exports rose to an all-time high in the latest week. Equipment utilization in the U.S. Midwest rose to a record high in the latest week.

Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital, noted that "the increase in inventories reported by the API is an unexpected news." If later U.S. Energy Information Administration data shows an increase in inventories, it will mark the second consecutive increase in inventories. An unexpected inventory increase this week will have a negative impact on oil prices.

Data show that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States in the week ending December 23 was 218,000, a slight increase from the previous month. These (employment) numbers tend to be unstable around the holidays, and the four-week moving average was little changed last week at 212,000, the lowest since late October. The four-week moving average can reflect employment trends more clearly.

Although initial jobless claims rose last week, they remained near record lows, a further sign of companies' reluctance to lay off workers amid steady demand. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls, due to be released next week, to still grow by a healthy 170,000 people, consistent with strong employment demand, which has been a key driver of economic growth. Such job growth reinforces some predictions that Federal Reserve officials will succeed in achieving a soft landing for the economy after nearly two years of aggressive interest rate hikes.

"The market may try to move upward again...perhaps at the beginning of the new year on expectations that fuel demand will recover due to monetary easing in the United States and increased kerosene demand in the northern hemisphere winter," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities.

OPEC's 2023 production curbs failed to spark a long-term bull run in crude bids as several smaller members snubbed the oil cartel's voluntary output caps, triggering Angola's withdrawal from the oil group's pact. Crude output still exceeds global oil demand despite major members committing to continued production cuts, especially Saudi Arabia, which has cut production by more than one million barrels per day.

Another event that also deserves investors' attention is that Mandara Capital, a London-based oil trader, will shut down its business. The company was once one of the largest market makers in crude oil and fuels. Company founder Muwaffaq Salti said the shutdown process is ongoing. Mandara trades derivatives of refined products such as crude oil, gasoline and fuel oil. Salti was the global head of fuel trading at JPMorgan Chase before founding the company. After Mandara's initial success, some traders left around 2015 to start their own businesses, and similar companies were born. They include Onyx Commodities Ltd., the largest derivatives trader by volume, and Dare International Ltd., both of which have expanded their operations in recent years to trade more commodities.

[Friday’s trading day focuses on financial data and events (Beijing time)]

① 15:00 Nationwide house price index monthly rate in the UK in December

② 16:00 KOF economic leading indicator in Switzerland in December

③ 22:45 Chicago PMI in the United States in December

④ 02:00 the next day The total number of oil rigs in the United States for the week to December 29

Master Select 5

19/01/2024

17/01/2024

15/01/2024

15/01/2024

10/01/2024

10/01/2024

05/01/2024

05/01/2024

03/01/2024

03/01/2024

29/12/2023

Address

Telephone

Website

Alerts

Contact The Business

Shortcuts

Share

Category